In Michigan, it has been historically challenging for Republicans to win statewide elections in Presidential years. However, in Gubernatorial years, the GOP has enjoyed greater success. With the Gubernatorial cycle in 2014, this means the open United States Senate seat being vacated by Senator Carl Levin is a potential pickup and a great opportunity for Republican victory.
Presidential Year vs Gubernatorial Year
| Presidential Year | Gubernatorial Year |
|---|---|
| 1988 Bush (R) | 1990 Engler (R) |
| 1992 Clinton (D) | 1994 Engler/Abraham (R) |
| 1996 Clinton (D) | 1998 Engler (R) |
| 2000 Gore/Stabenow (D) | 2002 Granholm (D) (Land won SoS) |
| 2004 Kerry (D) | 2006 Granholm (D) (Land won SoS) |
| 2008 Obama (D) | 2010 Snyder (R) |
| 2012 Obama (D) | 2014 – |
Land Success in Democrat Years
Republicans have won the top of the ticket in almost every Gubernatorial cycle since 1990. In the two cycles that Democrats won, Terri Lynn Land won statewide in landslides that led the Republican ticket and in one case even outpaced the Democrat top of the ticket.
| 2002 | |
| Governor | Secretary of State |
| Jennifer Granholm 1,633,796 | Terri Lynn Land 1,703,261* |
| Dick Posthumus 1,506,104 | Butch Hollowell 1,331,441 |
| 2006 | |
| Governor | Secretary of State |
| Jennifer Granholm 2,142,513* | Terri Lynn Land 2,089,864 |
| Dick DeVos 1,608,086 | Carmella Sabaugh 1,561,828 |
| *denotes top vote getter |
Swing Counties
| Oakland County | Secretary of State Winner | Governor Winner |
| 2002 | Terri Lynn Land 56.36% | Jennifer Granholm 50.52% |
| 2006 | Terri Lynn Land 59.30% | Jennifer Granholm 50.54% |
| Macomb County | Secretary of State Winner | Governor Winner |
| 2002 | Terri Lynn Land 60.17% | Jennifer Granholm 47.16% |
| 2006 | Terri Lynn Land 52.03%* | Jennifer Granholm 52.16% |
| * running against a county-wide elected Democrat from Macomb County | ||
Democrat Area
Terri Lynn Land also has outpaced other Republicans by over performing in Democrat areas such as Wayne County.
| Terri Lynn Land | 2006 | 39.13% |
| Rick Snyder | 2010 | 38.31% |
| Mike Cox | 2006 | 37.22% |
| Terri Lynn Land | 2002 | 36.72% |
| Mike Cox | 2002 | 32.19% |
| Dick Posthumus | 2002 | 31.05% |
| Dick DeVos | 2006 | 27.27% |
Grassroots Republican Support
Terri Lynn Land has proven to be the most successful General Election nominee for the Republican Party in the past decade. It is important to note that she did this while maintaining very strong grassroots GOP support. She ran and won at MIGOP State Conventions three times in the past decade. She won conventions for Secretary of State in 2002 and 2006, and recently won a hotly contested convention for Republican National Committeewoman against a long-time incumbent.
Recent Polling
Terri Lynn Land’s electability advantage is also clear in the most recent polling from Public Policy Polling (PPP). PPP ran a survey that was released on June 5th with results as follows:
“The strongest potential Republican candidate at this point is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who announced her candidacy this week. She trails Peters by 5 points at 41/36. Land is the best-known person considering the race too, although she still has just 50% name recognition.
Mike Rogers does the next best against Peters, trailing 42/32. After him it’s Justin Amash and Dave Camp who each trail by 12 points at 42/30 and 43/31 respectively, Kimberly Small who’s 16 points back at 42/26, Roger Kahn and Rob Steele who are each down 18 at 44/26, and Saul Anuzis who has a 20 point deficit at 44/24.”
Conclusion
The United States Senate seat is a toss-up in Michigan and winnable by the Republican Party if we nominate the right candidate due to the GOP’s great track record of success at the top of the ticket in Gubernatorial Election years.
Former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land has a history of landside victories in Michigan, including in years when Democrats won the top of the ticket. She did this by convincingly winning swing counties such as Oakland and Macomb County and over performing in Democrat areas such as Wayne County.
She had this success in General Elections while maintaining very strong support among the grassroots base of the party, evidenced by her convention victories.
The recent polling shows that her historical success at the ballot box is still paying off in the minds of voters as she has been the strongest potential GOP nominee in recent polling.
Simply put, Terri Lynn Land is the best candidate the Republican Party, and the voters of Michigan, can elect to represent our great state in the U.S. Senate.
